The update also explores why the global economy has remained resilient despite the supply-side shock from the Middle East, including delayed effects from oil prices, lower oil intensity, well-anchored inflation expectations, and the continued impact of the AI investment boom.

Geopolitical tensions remain a major focus, with US-Iran headlines becoming more hawkish and renewed concerns around Middle East energy facilities keeping oil prices volatile. Key data to watch this week includes global flash PMI readings, UK inflation, consumer confidence, retail sales, and public finances.

Despite ongoing tensions and weaker expectations for a near-term reopening of Hormuz, global equity markets remain remarkably resilient. We explore the key factors supporting markets, including the strength of the US economy, the continued expansion of AI-driven investment, and another exceptionally strong US earnings season.

We also discuss the latest US payroll data, the Federal Reserve outlook, growing concentration within equity markets, UK political developments following the local elections, and the upcoming inflation data that could shape future central bank decisions.

Finally, we look ahead to Jerome Powell’s departure as Federal Reserve Chair and the wider implications for investors navigating an increasingly uncertain global environment.

European and US indices pulled back following recent gains, despite a strong earnings season in the United States, where the majority of companies have exceeded expectations. Sector performance remained mixed, with energy and technology showing resilience, while more rate-sensitive areas lagged.

We also cover key central bank developments, with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all holding interest rates steady, signalling a cautious approach as inflation risks persist.

Finally, we examine rising transatlantic tensions, including new tariff proposals and military repositioning, and what these developments could mean for markets in the weeks ahead.

Key themes covered in this episode:

• The Hormuz Standoff: Why the "complete reopening" of the Strait lasted less than 48 hours and the reality of the US naval blockade.
• FOMOP vs. Reality: Analysing the "Fear of Missing Out on Peace" and how diplomatic "process thickening" has shifted into a high-stakes execution phase.
• Economic Lag: Why the physical impact of the Gulf disruption is only just hitting destination ports now.
• Market Resilience: A look at the S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s recent all-time highs (surpassing the 7,000 mark) and the strong start to the Q1 earnings season.
• Commodity Watch: Crude oil’s consolidation around $95 and the cooling of gold prices to $4,800.

With the Islamabad talks hanging in the balance and internal fractures appearing in Tehran, we examine why the "status quo" is no longer an option for investors.

We discuss why markets now expect both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to hold rates steady, and how this "higher for longer" outlook is already pushing up UK fixed-rate mortgages.

Key topics covered in this episode:

• Global Inflation & Rates: How energy-driven inflation risks are forcing central banks to rethink their easing policies.

• UK Mortgage Market: The practical consequences for households and property investors facing refinancing pressures this year.

• UK Spring Statement: An analysis of fiscal drag from frozen tax thresholds, plus what changes to capital taxation, pensions, and inheritance mean for expats with UK-linked wealth.

• US Expat Tax Updates: Navigating new tax allowances for Americans abroad amidst a landscape of increasing compliance and regulatory scrutiny.

What began as a geopolitical shock is now fundamentally altering borrowing costs and financial planning assumptions. Tune in to understand why proactive, long-term wealth strategy is more critical than ever.