Despite ongoing tensions and weaker expectations for a near-term reopening of Hormuz, global equity markets remain remarkably resilient. We explore the key factors supporting markets, including the strength of the US economy, the continued expansion of AI-driven investment, and another exceptionally strong US earnings season.

We also discuss the latest US payroll data, the Federal Reserve outlook, growing concentration within equity markets, UK political developments following the local elections, and the upcoming inflation data that could shape future central bank decisions.

Finally, we look ahead to Jerome Powell’s departure as Federal Reserve Chair and the wider implications for investors navigating an increasingly uncertain global environment.

European and US indices pulled back following recent gains, despite a strong earnings season in the United States, where the majority of companies have exceeded expectations. Sector performance remained mixed, with energy and technology showing resilience, while more rate-sensitive areas lagged.

We also cover key central bank developments, with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all holding interest rates steady, signalling a cautious approach as inflation risks persist.

Finally, we examine rising transatlantic tensions, including new tariff proposals and military repositioning, and what these developments could mean for markets in the weeks ahead.